Just 60 days in the past that the young forward stood on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery berated him for not reading a pass in behind. Back then, as the club failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether his performances were a sign or a cause of Villa's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, though, the sideline response was entirely much more joyous. After the in-form star swept in his second to restore Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician ripped off his winter coat, opened his arms and roared. Villa marched on to a 10th successive win , having failed to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, find themselves only three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Serious Title Contenders?
It remains a rather hard question to address. The historical record, the traditional standing of the club, suggests not. Moreover, they've rarely been entirely convincing this season, even as the victories have accumulated.
According to Opta, in only two games has the team had an xG notably superior than the other team. For a team who have just won ten consecutive victories, Villa look weirdly vulnerable – however currently the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic appears to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and wait for their talisman to bail them out with a couple of precise efforts. It happened against Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and once more versus United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a superb shot, curled precisely inside the post from the corner of the box. For his second proved to be a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opposition managed more efforts and more efforts on goal. Villa have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge the club will encounter as the season progresses. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot maintain drilling the ball into the top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is another reality in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs might still find their top level.
- The main striker may begin to scoring again.
- The winger may rediscover the force he showed in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to regain fitness, strengthening a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
This could contain the potential for a sustained push, but they surely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this is a surprise. Few believed Aston Villa would sit third at Christmas. And without a doubt two months ago, nobody thought the young forward now would be leading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as an essential England player.
The current run must be cherished exactly since it feels so unlikely. As Rogers faced the North End when the game ended leading the celebrations, he seemed to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
